Scenario planning is the process of making assumptions on what the future is going to be and how your business environment will change over time as a result of your predictions.

Scenario planning involves the identification of specific eventualities and probable realities that may happen to your business as a result of the current and projected climate of your environment. Building these assumptions is the best thing you can ever do to help guide your organization in the long term especially given the volatile nature of the Zimbabwean market.

Scenario planning is originated from the military in WWII. During the war, it was always highly important (a matter of life and death) to be prepared for different possibilities – both good and bad. It wasn’t soon after the war that some companies saw that the methodology made sense in business.

And given the current landscape, a post-pandemic world, rapidly changing business environments need planning that is extensive and precise. Businesses must adapt to staying ahead – not waiting for change to have a plan and strategy in place.

Scenario planning is a very structured process, but also calls for creativity and imagination around something bound to happen in the future. Imagine a scenario where the oil price drops by 10% per barrel, if you just leave it at that without planning for that scenario, your business will head for a disaster. But if you outline what this means for your company, you will decide and start to plan how it will affect you – taking into account how it will affect your supply chain, your customers, your suppliers and all other aspects of your business.